As the calendar changes from March to April, Democrats around the country are getting serious about the blue wave they expect for the 2018 election. But, as background noise, we are starting to hear more about the 2020 presidential election, when Democrats plan to nominate a candidate to behead the Medusa known as Donald Trump. I have an opinion about who the 2020 Democratic nominee will be, and I want to get this down in writing just in case I’m right 30 months before the election.
The next president of the United States will be the senior senator from the great state of Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar. I’m not saying that I think she is the best candidate, or even that she will be the candidate that I support. But, based on how I see things, she will be the nominee. Here is how I came to this conclusion.
I start with the assumption that the Democratic party will want to nominate a woman in 2020. They will, of course, want to nominate the candidate – male or female, white or minority – who has the best chance to win; but that specific nominee is hard to determine during the long nominating process. All I’m saying: if a white man, a black man, and a woman are the leading candidates, the woman will be given the inside track.
Who are the leading female candidates? According to articles in Politico and FiveThirtyEight, the leading female candidates are all senators: Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren. There are no female governors who have the experience to run. Which brings me to the second reason for President Klobuchar – Iowa.
When Amy drives down Interstate 35 in the summer of 2019 and spreads around her Midwestern values and charm, those Iowa farmers are going to love her. At the Iowa State Fair, she’ll talk about how much she loves state fairs, because she has spent so much time at the Minnesota State Fair. Iowans will eat it up. Seriously, can you see a female senator from New York, Massachusetts, or California having a chance against Klobuchar in Iowa? She’ll come out of the Iowa caucus as the clear leader.
You might ask about Amy Klobuchar’s weak spot – her charisma. On a stage with Kirsten, Kamala, and Elizabeth, Amy will be the weakest link when it comes to charisma. Which brings me to the third reason for President Klobuchar. Call it the Hiring-a-New-Football-Coach Theory. When a team fires a football coach, they usually fall into the trap of hiring a coach with the opposite personality of the coach they just fired. If the fired coach was a rah-rah, high energy coach, then it’s time to hire a professional, strategic coach, and visa versa. After four years of Donald Trump, the county will be ready to hire a no-nonsense, experienced, professional politician, with a track record of success. And that is Amy Klobuchar.
How about her other “weakness” – she is not liberal enough to appeal to the “Bernie” voters. As the article in FiveThirtyEight states, the other three female senators are more progressive than Amy. In fact, I think that Amy might be the least progressive candidate of any of the possible 2020 democratic candidates – which is the final reason she is going to win. As the presidential nominating process moves along in 2020, Amy will win the large middle of the party, while everyone else is dividing the liberal wing of the party. She will slowly and surely accumulate the majority of the delegates.
A couple of months before the convention, there will be a demand to come together to support the leading candidate so that the Democrats are united against the Republicans. And, unlike some past presidential years, all the factions of the party will do it because we desperately want to win in 2020.
Amy gets nominated and goes on to win 45 states in 2020, thereby removing Donald Trump from the White House and essentially killing the Republican party, who will not win another Presidential election in the 21st century. How is that for a prediction! You read it here first.